Monday, December 28, 2009

Bernanke's Life in Photos

From my friend XYN's blog! [tumbled from Time]

Also from Time, a brief history of the Fed. [in pictures!]

Friday, December 25, 2009

Holly and Reindeer.

Is It Christmas?!

Tried to get my puppy, Holly, to pose as a reindeer.  She was not cooperating...
And yes, that is my moose hat from Alaska (thanks nams!) which I wore around Wellesley b/c it literally feels like a warm animal is sitting on your head.



Thursday, December 24, 2009

Mishkin and Monetary Policy.

According to the International Economic Law and Policy Blog, if Santa were party to the WTO he would be charged with "dumping, not to mention violating IP rules, destroying the environment, using genetically modified reindeer and abusing his labor."
Ha.

So, I just finished reading an NBER paper titled, "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy" by Frederic S. Mishkin (author of my ECON 321 - Money and Banking textbook!) I found it on Akila's homepage and thought it would be fun to read.  It was written in 1996, but seems relevant to today's economy, no

Before I talk about the paper, I thought it would be good to review IS-LM curves!  Also, throughout this blog post remember that Y = C+I+G+NX.  (output = consumption + investment + government spending + net exports)

[picture from the Economist]


LM stands for liquidity-money.  And if there's one thing I learned from Professor Johnson, it is that IS-LM curves are NOT supply and demand curves.  They're equilibrium loci!  IS is the equilibrium locus of points at which the market for goods and services is cleared in the short run.  Example: at r1 and Y1, the market for goods and services is cleared.

LM is an equilibrium locus of points for which money supply equals money demand.  Example: at r3 and Y3, the money demanded in an economy equals the money supplied in that economy. 

Okay, Mishkin's paper!
Mishkin starts out by explaining the principle of traditional expansionary monetary policy:

Money supply [M] increases leading to a decrease in real interest rates [r].  This stimulates investment spending [I] and leads to an increase in aggregate demand [AD] and output [Y].
M increases --> r decreases --> I increases --> Y increases.

If you're looking at IS-LM curves, the LM curve is shifting to the right.  Because in order for demand to match the increased supply of money, interest rates must be lower for any given level of output/income [Y].

So what happens when money supply increases SO much such that nominal interest rates reach zero? (hrm...sound familiar?!) 
Spending is actually affected by real interests rates rather than nominal interest rates.  So, during times of expansionary monetary policy, expected price level [P^e] and expected inflation levels [π^e] rise.  Given the Fisher equation, r = i − π, we can say that this increased expected inflation will lower the r and stimulate I leading to an increase in AD and Y.
M increases --> P^e increases --> π^e increases --> r decreases --> I increases --> Y increases.


Mishkin says that "this mechanism is a key element in monetarist discussions of why the U.S. was not stuck in a liquidity trap during the Great Depression and why expansionary monetary policy could have prevented the sharp decline in output during this period."

Mishkin points out that interest rate channels are not the only way through which monetary policy can promote growth.  There is also the exchange rate channel, equity price channels and credit channels.

Exchange Rate Channel
When money supply increases, real interest rates fall.  This means that the return on dollar denominated deposits will be relatively less than that on foreign exchange denominated deposits.  Thus, demand for the dollar will fall and the exchange rate (E) will reflect depreciation.  Depreciation isn't always a bad thing though.  If the value of the dollar falls, American goods become relatively cheaper than foreign goods.  This boosts net exports (NX) which boosts output (Y).
M increases --> r decreases --> E decreases --> NX increases --> Y increases.


Equity Price Channels
1) Tobin's q theory of investment:  "q" --> the market value of firms divided by the replacement cost of capital.  The higher q is, the cheaper it is (relatively) for firms to buy new plant and equipment capital.  Fixed investment rises as q rises.
Since higher equity prices (P^e) will lead to higher q, we can say that:
M increases --> higher P^e --> higher q --> I increases --> Y increases.

2) Wealth effects:  Remember Y = C+I+G+NX?  Well, one of the determinants of C is the value of one's financial wealth.  When stock prices rise, C is likely to rise as well.
M increases --> P^e increases --> wealth increases --> C increases --> Y increases.

1 & 2 apply to housing and land prices channels as well since housing and land also determine one's wealth.

Credit Channels:
"There are two basic channels of monetary transmission that arise as a result of information problems in credit markets:"
1) The bank lending channel:  Expansionary monetary policy increases bank reserves and bank deposits thus allowing them to make more loans available to firms.
M increases --> bank deposits increase --> bank loans increase --> I increases --> Y increases.

Clearly, this does not always happen.  The Economist recently wrote about the difficulties that small firms face during recession.  Small firms rely on banks for about 90% of their financing needs while larger firms rely on banks for only about 30% of their financing needs.

2) Balance sheet channels: 
When firms have lower net worth, there tend to be more adverse selection and moral hazard problems in lending to these firms.  Businesses with lower net worth don't have as much collateral to put down for their loans (banks are more likely to suffer losses).  Owners of such businesses also have lower equity stake in their firms and are willing to take greater risks with investment projects, etc.  (moral hazard)
Thus, when M increases and P^e (net worth of firms) increases --> adverse selection/moral hazard decrease --> lending increases --> I increases --> Y increases.

Increased M and decreased nominal interest rates (i) also raises cash flow of firms which improves their balance sheets.
M increases --> i decreases --> cash flow increases --> adverse selection/moral hazard decrease --> lending increases --> I and Y increase.

An unanticipated rise in price level also improves balances sheets by raising the real value of firms' assets.  Since burden of debt is dictated by nominal interest rates, an unexpected rise in price level lowers burden of debt.  (Lenders don't like inflation, debtors like inflation)
Therefore, an unexpected rise in price level raises real net worth of firms, lowering adverse selection and moral hazard problems and stimulating I and Y as mentioned above.
M increases --> unanticipated P increases --> adverse selection/moral hazard decrease --> lending increases --> I and Y increase. 

Household balance sheet effects:
This one's pretty straightforward...if households expect themselves to be in financial distress in the near future, they don't want to invest in illiquid consumer durable or housing assets.  
However, if they expect the value of their financial assets to rise, they will be willing to buy a new house or car, etc.
M increases --> P^e increases --> financial assets increase --> likelihood of financial distress decreases --> consumer durable and housing expenditure increase --> Y increases.

Okay, so this blogpost is pretty monstrous.  I'll just bullet point a few important things from the rest of Mishkin's paper:
  • Monetary policy affects Y through other asset prices besides interest rates.
  • Near zero short-term interest rates do not necessarily mean that monetary policy is easy if economy is undergoing deflation.  (ex: short-term interest rates during Great Depression were near zero, but monetary policy was contractionary)
  • If short-term interest rates are near zero but stock Ps are low, land prices are low and value of domestic currency is high, then monetary policy is very tight and not easy.
  • "Avoiding unanticipated fluctuations in the price level is an important objective of monetary policy, thus providing a rationale for price stability as the primary long-run goal for monetary policy." 

So, basically, when I started writing this blog post, I just wrote out the things that are bolded and in green so I wouldn't forget what I had read in Mishkin's paper.  It turned out to be a pretty incoherent blogpost, so I started adding more and more details...

If you're still reading, pat yourself on the back.


Happy Christmas Eve!

Friday, December 18, 2009

Answers to Crossword #4!

Across:
3) five
5) four
6) progressive
8) treasury
10) expensive
12) dubai
14) inflation

Down:
1) discouraged
2) somalia
4) emerging
7) obesity
9) median
11) spending
13) upward

Monday, December 14, 2009

Pauls.

Paul Krugman talks about Paul Samuelson here.
Boo.  Hate it when smart people die.

Sorry for the delay on crossword. Will post new one with answers to old one soonish!

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

All's Fair in Love and War?

A post from The Economist blog Free Exchange from Democracy in America.

"A BIG hat tip to my colleague at Democracy in America for highlighting this factoid, from Spencer Ackerman:
According to Gen. McChrystal, the Taliban pays its soldiers about $300 U.S. per month—which is more than the U.S.-sponsored Afghan government does... McChrystal said that in coordination with the Afghan government, the pay scale for the Afghan security forces has just almost doubled, to the point where it’s "almost at parity" with the Taliban now. Of course, that still means the Taliban pays its recruits more than the Afghan government does. And if the Obama administration and NATO are correct that many Taliban foot soldiers essentially fight because of economic opportunity, then this is a glaring, flashing red light of a problem.
Matt Yglesias follows up with relevant thoughts:
At the same time, this highlights a lot of lingering issues about the cost-effectiveness of our approach. Why are we spending a multiple of Afghanistan’s total GDP on fighting a war in the country? Couldn’t more be done, for cheaper, with cash for bribes and development? How is it that it doesn’t take the Taliban years to train competent soldiers?
The concept of a sunk cost really doesn't seem to have penetrated the intellectual sphere of military policymakers."

HA.

Speaking of sunk cost, this is for my friends who are in less than ideal relationships:
If you're in a sh*tty relationship that's been sh*tty for a while and you're thinking, oh but I should just stay in it because I've already given up so much to be with this person blah blah blah, mission abort! Sunk cost! Do you want to add opportunity cost to your list too?! You're young! Go find someone else who will make you happier! (divorce in my future? hope not.)

Monday, December 7, 2009

My heart bleeds for the filthy rich.

From the Economist: The rich tax themselves to stay rich.  Interesting.

Buttonwood tackles the issue of banker bonuses.  As does Richard Murphy.

I am very bitter about the finance industry.  In college, I thought that I would lose my friends to their significant others.  But it looks like I've lost many of them to banks instead...boo.  When people ask my friend if she has a boyfriend her response is, "Yes.  His name is Deutsche Bank."  Sad.

In a gchat conversation today:
----: we better getting bonuses this year or else i legit have mcd's hrly wages

Haha.

Will post answers to Crossword #4 on Friday when I put up a new crossword!

Extra: Great visualization of income inequality in NYC here.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Beautiful Redemption.

Performance by my favorite person in the world, my younger sister, Serena!

She is amazing because 1) she doesn't have any formal vocal training (well, she took a lesson or two back in h.s. but didn't really have time for it...) and 2) if you've EVER heard me sing, you know that vocal talent does not run in the Jang family...


Friday, December 4, 2009

Bad Ben, Bad!

Poor Ben Bernanke. He's orders of magnitudes smarter than the people who bitch him out on a daily basis. Washington Post article here.

Testimony here.

Crossword Puzzle #4!

Puzzle and hints are two separately uploaded pictures. Click on either one to enlarge/enhance.
Enjoy! Answers posted on Monday.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

My favorite holiday of the year. For obvious reasons.

Some things that I am thankful for:

1) replyforall.com - donate to your favorite causes just by sending e-mails! [fabulous. i love donating other people's money! haha]

2) threadsy.com - because I hate going to separate webpages for facebook, twitter, gmail, etc. Thank you, threadsy, for pulling me together. You've come a long way since your unifime days.

3) my job, which allowed me to have a kid without the messiness of giving birth. I just signed up to sponsor a child through worldvision.org. It's awesome! You can donate a GOAT AND TWO CHICKENS for $100. LOVES IT.

4) The Economist.

5) my people (this includes family, friends, blog followers, etc.)

6) my dog.

7) and how could I forget, the independence of the Fed.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Music and Medicine.

I went to an intellectual property rights (IPR) lecture the other day, and the professor mentioned this thing called the "homestyle exemption" which basically allows small restaurants and stores to play music without paying royalties so long as they use "homestyle equipment."

I don't know about other people, but I have pretty badass subwoofers and speakers attached to my laptop...and Carrie's subwoofer puts mine to shame...

Anyway, there's also a "business exemption" which allows food and retail establishments to play music without authorization or payment of a fee as long as their size does not exceed a certain square footage limit.

So I was telling Hillary that in Dispute Settlement 160, the EC complained that these exemptions were violations of Article 9(1) of the TRIPS agreement, which is basically this, from what I can tell...

Her response was, "It makes me sad that people spend their energy on that kind of thing..."

I can't really imagine Lang Lang throwing a hissy fit because he didn't get paid for a CD of his that was played at Bloomingdale's or wherever...
He probably plays because he loves to, and because he's so f-ing good at it. [Just went to his concert on Friday and he was amazing!]

And I don't think F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote The Great Gatsby thinking, "Yeah...this one is totally going to produce $500,000 a year for my grandchildrens' trust fund!" (Truth)
Hillary says, "That's crazy! That's more than 7 times what YOU make." Thank you, Hillary, for so kindly pointing this out to me.

Anyway, it seems silly to me that people have to pay to play music for others...if it is a disincentive for musicians to make music because their music is being played in public places for free, then maybe they shouldn't be musicians to begin with.

The Economist just had an article about music piracy, here.

Also, because I was talking to a few people about IPR and drugs and wanted to write down some thoughts:

1) As Michelle Boldrin and David Levine argue, perhaps we are on the wrong side of the Laffer curve when it comes to innovation and rewards. CMR International reported that in the 1990s, $35-40 billion on R&D yielded 35-40 new drugs. Now, however, $60 billion on R&D yields fewer than 30 new drugs.

2) A good excerpt from an old article in the Economist:

"• Drugs Much of the recent debate over the impact of IPR on the poor has centred on the issue of access to expensive medicines. On paper, many of the world's least-developed countries have laws which provide patent protection for pharmaceuticals. In practice, few enforce them. Spurred on by a victory in April 2001 against drug companies fighting patent reform in South Africa, developing countries issued a declaration at the WTO meeting in Doha last year. This asserted the primacy of public health over IPR. They resolved that the world's least-developed countries should be given at least until 2016 to introduce patent protection for pharmaceuticals.

On September 17th, the WTO council responsible for TRIPS will consider a far trickier proposition in the declaration: how to make compulsory licensing (the manufacture and marketing of a patented drug without the patent-holder's consent) work for the poorest. TRIPS already permits compulsory licensing under certain conditions, including national emergencies. This is fine for countries such as Brazil, which have domestic drug industries to copy the medicines. Brazil has, indeed, used the threat of compulsory licensing to wring price discounts out of drug companies, a ploy which the commission, somewhat controversially, supports.

The problem is what to do with countries which have no drug makers. For the moment, they can import generic copies from the likes of India, but come 2006, when those exporters are supposed to have fallen in with the TRIPS line, who will supply the drugs?"

3) Random fact: Viagra was initially developed as the hypertension drug, Slidenafil. But they were like, hey, there's this weird side effect and we can make so much more money this way! Ha.
Hillary: "Can you imagine? You're going to climb Mount Everest and you pack some Viagra with you, and people are like, 'why are you bringing that along?!'"

4) From Hillary: "
This does make the drug companies look pretty evil, but the argument that drug companies need to make money in order to invest in new research is a valid one."

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Happy World Series!



Interesting fact about Larry Summers and baseball, "in the sixth grade Larry created an analysis of baseball games that attempted to predict the probability of a team’s performance at the end of the season based on its position in the standings on the Fourth of July." [from the New Yorker]

Alan Greenspan also learned how to do fractions by studying baseball stats.

Let's go YANKEES, let's go!

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Paul Blustein on the Misadventures of the Most Favored Nations

"Clashing Egos, Inflated Ambitions, and the Great Shambles of the World Trading System"
That's the subtitle of Paul Blustein's book, Misadventures of the Most Favored Nations. How can one not want to pick up a book with that title/subtitle?!

The Washington Post says, "Blustein has thoroughly mastered the craft of breathing life into intrinsically dull material with compelling thematic narrative and delicious character studies." Delicious, indeed.

Paul Blustein came to Georgetown Law today to talk about his book, and it was so fun! He read some pages from his book and at one point he pretended to be an army guy yelling at trade representatives.
Apparently, Americans attending the Doha round were given the password "paging Mr. Black," which meant that there was a terrorist threat and all Americans had to evacuate so they could be taken to navy ships nearby. (To hell with the reps from other countries, right? Haha.)

Blustein talked about the frustrations of different countries during multilateral trade rounds like Doha, and the challenges that must be overcome when negotiating a deal between parties with disparate views and priorities. Towards the end of his lecture, Blustein said he felt that a moratorium should be placed on bilateral trade agreements because they draw attention away from multilateral processes.
I thought this was an interesting statement for him to make since he had spent so much time talking about the doomed nature of multilateral trade rounds. If multilateral rounds are so ineffective, isn't the opportunity cost of focusing on bilateral trade agreements insignificant? Why not focus on the pareto improvements that could be made through bilateral trade agreements rather than those that will never be made through multilateral agreements?
Blustein clarified: Although the WTO has its flaws, countries need to preserve this organization that has done so much to prevent trade wars (through its dispute settlement system). When countries start shifting toward bilateral agreements, there is less of an incentive for them to pursue/cooperate in multilateral agreements that can lead to more benefits at the margin. (He explained all of this much more eloquently that I have...)

I agree that countries need to start thinking about themselves as part of a global community, and not just the European community, or the East Asian community, etc. Like Lant Pritchett said, we need to stop having these "imaginary communities."

The Washington Post says, "Blustein leaves the book's punch line until its final section: The benefits of free trade have been grossly oversold. By the WTO's own accounting, even the utopian elimination of all tariffs would boost world GDP by less than a half-percent, with most of that benefit going to the wealthiest nations." However, it is difficult to swallow this idea after reading pieces like "Ricardo's Difficult Idea" by Paul Krugman.

A friend of Blustein argued that by claiming that the sky is falling, one is only doing more to catalyze the self-prophesied failure of the WTO. It's kind of like deflation - if people go around saying that there is the threat of deflation, even when there is none, we could end up in a deflationary death spiral like Japan's lost decade...

Related Links:
Blustein mentioned Smoot-Hawley at one point and it reminded me of the '93 debate where Gore gives Perot a framed picture of Smoot and Hawley and says, "I framed this so you can put it on your wall if you want to." Ha!

Professor Johnson used to do Ross Perot imitations. Those were fun. (Sigh, I miss Wellesley.)

Greg Mankiw blogged about VAT not too long ago.

In other news:
I'll be blogging about ridiculous things countries have done to discriminate against certain imports. (Are all cows the same?! Are all sardines the same?! What exactly is a "like good?")

Filling out paperwork for my retirement account and health insurance has made me even more depressed about turning 22 this week...Melky Cabrera is only 3 years older than I am and he plays on the best baseball team EVER, AND he has crater like dimples. How am I supposed to beat that?!

Anyway, time for sleep. Tomorrow's Thursday - my favorite day of the week! (b/c I get to go to International Trade and get out of work knowing that the next day is Friday...but I assure you, Friday is not my favorite day of the week. My favorite day of the week is Thursday.)

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Racism and Religionomics.

I had a conversation with a man who reminded me of a real life Michael Scott. And not in a good way.
Here's how it went.

Me: Hello. Can I help you?
----: Oh, my. What a cute voice you have. You're so cute. You must be brand new.
Me: Well, I just started 2 weeks ago...
----: Well, you're brand new and squeaky clean, aren't you?
Me (in my head): Well, I did take a shower this morning, but he doesn't know that...
----: I'm looking for L----. Is she here today?
Me: Yes, but I'm not sure where she is right now.

A little while later.
----: L----, isn't she nice? (points toward me) What's your name?
Me: Esther.
----: Oh, cmon. That's not your real name.
Me: My real name?
----: Is it?
Me: Uhh, yeah...
----: Where did you go to school?
Me: Wellesley.
----: (laughs) Oh, well I went to Babson. I know you Wellesley girls, with your noses in the air. Who did you date in college?
Me: No one. My econ textbooks. If we have our noses in the air, it's with good reason.
----: You probably only dated Harvard men, isn't that right?

WTF. Does he SERIOUSLY wonder why Wellesley girls wouldn't go out with him? I'm pretty sure it's not because he went to Babson...


Anyway, I've been feeling sick and went to bed at 7pm last night thinking that I would wake up in an hour or so. I ended up waking up at 9am the next morning. Haha. WIN.

I've been reading Brothers Karamazov, which I love love love. I just finished reading "Rebellion," a chapter in the book that makes one of the strongest arguments against the existence of God. (according to people who know way more lit than I do...) I will probably still go to church tomorrow and ask God to make sure I don't get H1N1. (Thanks, God.)

In Development Econ, Professor Lucas once asked us to name examples of things that are correlated with GDP per capita where the causation only runs from GDP per capita to that something, and not vice versa. It's actually kind of difficult, no? My group's response was religion. We figured that as countries become wealthier, they place less importance on religion. However, religion does not really have an effect on GDP per capita. [Apparently, the U.S. is an outlier and is very religious for its level of wealth.]

Robert Barro has also studied religion in the context of economics. It was mentioned in Marginal Revolution here!

The Economist had a little something about Islam: here.

As Voltaire once wrote, s'il n'existait pas Dieu, il faudrait l'inventer. [In
Bound Together, Nayan Chanda claims that Voltaire drank 80 cups of coffee a day at Le Procope, to which I say, eww.]

It was probably not a good idea for me to blog in a feverish state...I don't think this is a very coherent post.

OMGSH GUYS. I just googled "religion economics" and found a blog called RELIGIONOMICS. HAHAHAHA. How funny is that?!

I also found this article about economists and religion.

That's all for today. Is it a bad idea for me to try to make Phoenician honey biscuits while sick?

Monday, October 12, 2009

Prizes!

This year's Nobel Prize for Economics: Elinor Ostrom & Oliver E. Williamson

Peace prize went to Obama...
A few economists commented, "it's like giving a Nobel Prize to an economist who is going to write a good paper..."
Haha.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Sorkin Book Excerpt: "Too Big to Fail"

Sorkin Book Excerpt: "Too Big to Fail"

Can you imagine someone telling Geithner to get f*cked?!

Posted using ShareThis

Thursday, September 24, 2009

The Marshmellow Test

A lesson on hyperbolic preferences.

New Yorker had an article about it here!

So, if you're computer has no sound, don't worry. Basically, a woman tells these children that they can eat the 1st marshmellow right away, OR they can wait until she comes back and receive a 2nd marshmellow. She then leaves for a very long time...

The boy in grey shirt (the one who does NOT display hyperbolic preferences) is SOOO CUTE from 2:46-2:53. OMGAHHH. SO FUNNY. I DIE.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Diversions.

I finally have some time to blog! These past two weeks have been crazy. By the end of this week, I will have been on a bus/car for a total of 27 hours...
I picked out my apartment in Pentagon City and it's going to be awesome! It's pretty much across the street from the Pentagon City mall, Pentagon City metro station, Costco and a Mr. Smoothie. What more could a girl who does not drive ask for? Maybe a puppy...

Anyway, I linked you guys to Jenn's blog earlier. She wrote an awesome post about Chavez's impact on Venezuela. As promised, here is my post on expropriation and social institutions. (I promised Jenn it would be meaty...)

In ECON 333, we studied a paper called, "Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?" by Robert E. Hall and Charles I. Jones. In this paper, Hall and Jones hypothesize that output per worker is affected by differences in social infrastructure across countries. They assume that social infrastructure is determined historically by location and other factors captured in part by language.

So, what exactly is "social infrastructure?" Unfortunately, social infrastructure is not easily quantifiable. However, Hall and Jones think that "the ideal measure of social infrastructure would quantify the wedge between the private return to productive activities and the social return to such activities. A good social infrastructure ensures that these returns are kept closely in line across the range of activities in an economy." Good social infrastructure protects people against "diversion." Diversion includes things like expropriation, corruption, etc.

Not surprisingly, Hall and Jones find that:
1) Differences in social infrastructure across countries cause large differences in capital accumulation, educational attainment, and productivity, and therefore large differences in income across countries.

One might argue that there is a feedback effect from output per worker to social infrastructure (i.e. high output per worker may lead to the creation of better social infrastructure). However, Hall and Jones control for this feedback by using instrumental variables.* This is explained in their last finding:
"The extent to which different countries have adopted different social infrastructures is partially related to the extent to which they have been influenced by Western Europe. Using distance from the equator and language data, we conclude that our finding that differences in social infrastructure cause large differences in income is robust to measurement error and endogeneity concerns."

Basically, Hall and Jones are saying that countries that have been influenced by Western Europe tend to have better social infrastructure and higher output per capita. They study a sample of 127 countries and give a nice table of different countries' productivity levels as ratios to U.S. values.

Here are some figures:
Canada: 0.941
U.K.:
0.727
Japan:
0.587
India: 0.086
China:
0.060
Zaire:
0.033
The average for 127 countries was 0.296 w/a standard deviation of 0.268.

Why is the quality of social infrastructure so different across countries? (UGH, my mom just pulled a white hair out of my head as I was typing...WTF. THAT HURT.)

Anyway, there are several theories that address the above question, but I think I'm going to need another blog post to write about Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson, and Engerman & Sokoloff...

* Instrumental Variable:
Let's say we want to find the effect of "x" on "y." However, "x" is not quantifiable. So, we create an instrumental variable, "z," which is quantifiable. "z" affects "y" ONLY through "x." A bad instrumental variable affects "y" through other pathways.
For example,
x = total number of hours of TV watched
y = prevalence of autism in a city
z = amount of rainfall in that city

If we had no way of measuring the number of hours of TV watched in a city, but wanted to study its effect on the prevalence of autism, we could create instrumental variable "z," which is the amount of rainfall in that city.

More rain --> More kids stay indoors and watch TV --> higher prevalence of autism(?)

However, "z" is not a very good instrumental variable because you can make a pathway like this:

More rain --> More kids wear raincoats --> higher prevalence of autism(?)

Does all of that make sense?

OMGSHHH. I'm going to die laughing. I'm watching FRIENDS DVDs and my dad says, "Why do these people never look older? They're still so young!" I told him I was watching DVDs, and he said, "Oh okay. So they're old now, right?" Haha. LOVES IT.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Succexy (Like the song by Metric!)

I am no longer frictionally unemployed! YAYAYAYAY!

Thanks so so so much to friends who have helped me along the way! Could NOT have done it without you. I <3 you!!!

I'll be working at Georgetown Law/thinking about going to law school because it will be FREE.

Here is the awesome Professor with whom I will be working: John H. Jackon
I'll have a chance to go to his International Economic Law seminars/classes. YAY! I'm SUPER EXCITED.

AND I WILL HAVE HEALTH INSURANCE! YESSSS!

Please visit me in D.C. PLEASE?!

<3
ESJ